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Impact of spatial resolution on multi-scenario WRF-ARW simulations driven by the CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR global model: a focus on precipitation distribution over Italy

TitleImpact of spatial resolution on multi-scenario WRF-ARW simulations driven by the CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR global model: a focus on precipitation distribution over Italy
Publication TypeArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Year of Publication2025
AuthorsStruglia, Maria Vittoria, Anav A., Antonelli Marta, Calmanti Sandro, Catalano Franco, Dell'Aquila Alessandro, Pichelli Emanuela, and Pisacane Giovanna
JournalGeoscientific Model Development
Volume18
Pagination6095 - 6116
Type of ArticleArticle
ISSN19919603
Abstract

We present the results of downscaling CMIP6 global climate projections to local scales for the Mediterranean and Italian regions, aiming to produce high-resolution climate information for the assessment of climate change signals, with a focus on precipitation extreme events. We performed hindcast (i.e., ERA5-driven) and historical simulations (driven by the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model) to simulate the present (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) climate under three different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). For each experiment, a double-nesting approach is adopted to dynamically downscale global data to the regional domain of interest, firstly over the Europe (EURO) COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domain, at a spatial resolution of 15 km, and then further refined (second nesting) over Italy and the northwestern Mediterranean at a resolution of 5 km, i.e., in the so-called gray zone (5–10 km), close to the convection-permitting (CP) limit. Besides validating the experimental protocol, this work potentially questions the need for climate simulations to always resort to deep convection parameterizations when spatial refinement is increased up to the limit of the CP scale, yet convective processes are still not explicitly resolved. Analyses of air temperature and precipitation are presented, with a focus on the spatial distribution of precipitation, its probability density function, and the statistics of extreme events for both current climate and far-end scenarios. By the end of the century for all the scenarios and seasons there is a projected general warming along with an intensification of the hydrological cycle over most of continental Europe and mean precipitation reduction over the Mediterranean region accompanied, over the Italian Peninsula, by a strong increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation events, particularly relevant for the SSP5-8.5 scenario during autumn. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-105016761672&doi=10.5194%2Fgmd-18-6095-2025&partnerID=40&md5=0f4d833c4a9b38dffc57b0fd7c3d94a9
DOI10.5194/gmd-18-6095-2025
Citation KeyStruglia20256095